Finance · Euroglobal New
Two months ago, Elon Musk made a bold claim explaining why SpaceX's valuation exceeded $1.5 trillion, asserting a future market of $28.5 trillion for space, connectivity, and AI services. The biggest component was AI, valued at $26.5 trillion. Anthropic, another AI company, later announced its total addressable market (TAM) for AI services could reach $30 trillion.
Anthropic reported $11.6 billion in revenue in Q2 2026, more than doubling year-over-year, and earned a small operating profit. Both SpaceX and Anthropic emphasize that their TAM estimates are theoretical and based on hypothetical market-share capture. Estimating TAM is inherently speculative, as companies rarely disclose exact metrics or timelines.
Historical examples show that TAM estimates often diverge significantly from actual revenue, such as Uber’s $6 trillion claim versus $52 billion in 2023, or Rivian’s $9 trillion versus $5.4 billion in 2024. Instacart’s $1.1 trillion estimate was closer, with $3.7 billion in 2025 revenue. The lesson for investors is that TAM figures are marketing tools rather than precise predictions.
Companies like SpaceX and Anthropic may both target the same $30 trillion AI market, but no single entity will dominate it. Market share will likely be divided among multiple competitors, including OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and DeepSeek. Investors should be cautious, as TAM estimates are often overstated and may not reflect realistic near-term growth.
Source: The Motley Fool
